DIRECT ANSWER: The Parliamentary Committee Report views Bangladesh as India’s greatest strategic challenge since 1971 due to escalating Chinese geoeconomic influence (BRI, defense deals) coupled with persistent non-traditional security threats like radicalization, illegal migration, and cross-border criminal networks, fundamentally undermining India’s strategic depth on its eastern flank.
Why in News?
The Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs recently submitted a report that critically analyzed India's relationship with Bangladesh, stating that the convergence of heightened geopolitical competition (China factor) and porous border dynamics poses the gravest strategic challenge to New Delhi since the creation of Bangladesh in 1971.
What is the Concept / Issue?
The issue revolves around the shift in the India-Bangladesh relationship from one primarily focused on cooperation (post-2010 security convergence) to one increasingly defined by strategic competition management and vulnerability assessment. This shift is mandated by the simultaneous growth of China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy in the Bay of Bengal and the failure to fully contain non-traditional threats that directly impact India’s internal security, especially in northeastern states and West Bengal.
Why is this Issue Important?
- Strategic: Bangladesh serves as a critical bridge between India's 'Neighborhood First' policy and the 'Act East' policy. Loss of strategic influence compromises India's ability to project power and maintain maritime security in the Bay of Bengal, a crucial choke point.
- Economic: Instability or adverse political alignment in Bangladesh threatens BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) connectivity initiatives and disrupts crucial economic corridors vital for the development of India's Northeast region.
- Geopolitical/Social: Increased radicalization or illegal migration fueled by political instability in Bangladesh strains India's demographic and social fabric, leading to domestic law and order issues (e.g., citizenship debates and resource competition).
Key Sectors / Dimensions Involved
- Dimension 1: Geopolitical Significance (GS-II): Bangladesh is crucial for counter-insurgency cooperation and is vital for India's multilateral diplomacy platforms like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).
- Dimension 2: Non-Traditional Security Threats (GS-III): The 4,096 km border is highly vulnerable to illegal cross-border movement, human trafficking, narcotics and arms smuggling (Golden Crescent linkage), and the infiltration of transnational criminal and terror networks.
- Dimension 3: Geoeconomic and Chinese Influence (GS-II): China has become Bangladesh's largest trade partner and major defense supplier. Deepening Chinese investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) risk creating strategic debt dependence, potentially granting China access to vital coastal infrastructure (e.g., deep sea ports).
What are the Challenges?
- Water Sharing Disputes: Persistent failure to resolve major water sharing issues, particularly the Teesta river agreement, creates friction and allows third-party actors (China) to offer alternative solutions.
- Political Volatility: Domestic political uncertainty in Dhaka, especially around national elections, impacts long-term security cooperation and provides opportunities for anti-India elements to gain traction.
- Radicalization and Cross-Border Crime: The rise of fundamentalist groups (e.g., Jamaat-e-Islami, Ansarullah Bangla Team) poses a direct threat through ideological seepage and use of the border for operational movements.
- Trade Imbalance and Chinese Leverage: India faces stiff competition from China in offering concessional loans and developmental aid, leading Dhaka to lean towards Beijing for large-scale infrastructure projects, thus eroding India's economic leverage.
UPSC Relevance
Prelims Focus:
- Geography of India-Bangladesh border (states, boundary agreements).
- Key institutions and agreements: BIMSTEC, BBIN, Teesta River Dispute, Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) 2015.
- India's security grid on the Eastern Flank (BSF mandate, border management infrastructure).
Mains Angle:
GS Paper II / III – Linkage of India’s foreign policy (Neighborhood First) with internal security imperatives (cross-border threats, management of volatile frontiers).
How UPSC May Ask This Topic:
Critically analyze why a Parliamentary Committee viewed Bangladesh as India’s ‘greatest strategic challenge since 1971’. Suggest comprehensive policy measures integrating diplomatic, economic, and security strategies to safeguard India’s interests on the Eastern Flank. (250 Words, 15 Marks)
What is the Way Forward?
- Expedited Economic Integration: Focus on rapid execution of connectivity projects (rail, road, port access) and extending Lines of Credit (LoCs) effectively to counter China's BRI economic magnetism.
- Comprehensive Border Management: Transitioning from fenced borders to integrated border management (IBM) systems utilizing smart technology, enhanced surveillance, and specialized intelligence sharing to tackle non-traditional threats.
- Resolution of Water Disputes: Renewed diplomatic urgency to finalize the Teesta water sharing agreement, demonstrating India's commitment as a reliable long-term partner and minimizing space for third-party intervention.
- Deepening Defense and Security Dialogue: Move beyond basic counter-insurgency cooperation to shared maritime domain awareness (MDA) in the Bay of Bengal, offering high-tech defense hardware and training to diversify Bangladesh's defense procurement away from China.